Ukraine peace talks: Russia demands territory, army cuts, and ban on NATO

In what was billed as a potential turning point in the brutal three-year-old war between Russia and Ukraine, the second round of direct peace talks collapsed within an hour not with peace, but with yet more proof of just how far apart the two nations remain. Held in the historic city of Istanbul, Monday’s talks once again exposed the raw, unresolved core of this conflict,  irreconcilable visions of sovereignty, power, and survival. But in the midst of the stalemate, a glimmer of progress was seen a huge prisoner exchange agreement that, though humanitarian in scope, sharply contrasted the hardened geopolitical stances filling the room.

Istanbul talks last less than an hour amid stalemate

Monday’s meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul marked the latest attempt to forge a diplomatic path out of a war that has already taken tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions. Expectations were already low, and the talks ended in less than 60 minutes with no substantial progress toward a ceasefire.

Moscow’s demands: Territory, demilitarisation, and alliance ban

Russian negotiators, according to a memorandum reported by state media, tabled hardline conditions. Moscow demanded that Ukraine relinquish significant new territories and accept sweeping limitations on its military capabilities. These included a full withdrawal from the partly occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, formal recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and a constitutionally mandated ban on joining any military alliances like NATO.

Further Russian conditions reportedly included the demobilisation of a large portion of the Ukrainian armed forces, making Russian an official language in Ukraine, and the lifting of all international sanctions imposed on Moscow since the 2022 invasion.

Kyiv calls for full ceasefire as civilian and soldier toll mounts

In stark contrast, Ukraine, represented by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, stood firm on its demand for an immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire  on land, sea, and air lasting at least 30 days. “The killing must stop now,” Umerov said at a post-talks briefing. Kyiv also emphasized its rejection of any proposal that involved territorial concessions or the weakening of its sovereign right to self-defense.

1,000 prisoners on each side to be exchanged in landmark deal

In spite of the standoff, a breakthrough in the works was announced: the biggest prisoner exchange since hostilities erupted. The two sides agreed to exchange all seriously injured and seriously ill soldiers, as well as all prisoners under 25 years old. Head of the Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky said the exchange would involve at least 1,000 prisoners from each side, with numbers potentially rising. Russia also suggested a short two- or three-day ceasefire in certain sectors along the front line, although it didn't state where or when this would occur.

As the war grinds on, with Russia still occupying around 20% of Ukraine  including Crimea the road to peace appears as fractured as ever. Yet the humanitarian gestures, however small, signal that dialogue and perhaps hope is still alive.